Navigating Uncertainty: Q1 2025 Trends in Energy and Resources Advisory
In this article, the Enco Insights team share some of the key trends in energy and resources advisory at Enco in Q1 2025. From Expert Witness developments to our Advisor Network, we analyse significant developments in biofuels, policy uncertainty and more.
Uncertainty: Signal or Noise?
The energy and resources sector developed in a period of unprecedented globalisation, ever more free trade, and a non-inflationary environment. Today, that is being dramatically up-ended, writes Enco Insights’ Executive Director, Paul Chapman.
The energy transition is taking on the mantle of national security. Then add in a resurgent global trade war. All the while, technology - particularly AI – is challenging the competitive landscape.
All this heightens the need for the sector to become more flexible, as well as more connected to policy and hedged in technologies. Enco Insights was launched to help companies access the high-value expertise needed to navigate these challenges. The need to understand what is signal and what is noise has been extraordinarily amplified.
At a Crossroads
In an uncertain geopolitical environment, how can energy and resources firms decipher signal from noise? Read Paul Chapman’s full editorial.
Expert Witness Trends
Enco’s Expert Witness team has had its busiest quarter to date, with over four dozen requests from litigation and arbitration teams at international law firms. Our advisors provided expert reports and testimony spanning the energy sector, from upstream oil to disputes relating to semi-conductors.
Advisor Network Trends
Biofuels
Amid growing market uncertainty, more firms — including corporates — are turning to direct advisors for ongoing support. In Q1, 65% of our projects were focused on longer-term micro-engagements, rather than one-off insight calls.
One area that stood out was biofuels. Toward the end of 2024 and into 2025, we’ve worked on several projects in this space. With new regulatory changes now unfolding, the impact could be significant, with major implications for US agriculture and industry participants.
U.S. Policy Delays Create Investor Anxiety
The U.S. biofuels sector is stuck in uncertainty as the EPA delays key RVOs and the future of the 45Z tax credit remains unclear. Meanwhile, renewable diesel—previously driven by California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the expansion of soybean crushing—is showing signs of slowing. Without clear policy direction, investment decisions are stalling, threatening future growth.
Global Competition Heats Up
As North America stumbles, Asia races ahead. India’s ethanol blending rate has jumped from just 1.53% to 15% in a decade, with a 20% target set for 2025. Japan’s planned 10% ethanol mandate by 2030 could open crucial new markets. Meanwhile, Brazil remains a biofuels powerhouse, ranking among the top three biodiesel markets and standing as the world's second-largest ethanol producer. However, Brazil’s ethanol industry faces tough choices as trade tensions with the U.S. rise.
In a volatile landscape, informed decision-making is crucial. Enco Insights connects you with senior executives who have navigated multiple market cycles and regulatory transitions.